Bitcoin Prediction for This Year
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We have seen the price in Bitcoin price jump recently, it went from five thousand seven hundred to the current price of seven thousand five hundred dollars.
That’s more than 30% increase. In one of my previous article we have estimated that the average historical decrease in Bitcoin is approximately 76%.
In today’s article we will try to estimate what is an average historical increase in bitcoins price and how likely that Bitcoin will hit those numbers.
First let’s just try to recap heavy estimated
an average historical decrease of
Let’s go back all the way to January 2011 when price of the single
Bitcoin was only 6 cents. At hindsight you wish you would buy a Bitcoin for only 6 cents and even Peter Schiff would.
In July 2011 Bitcoin price skyrocketed to a new all-time high of $30 per bitcoin but few months later it dropped to almost 2 dollars, that’s ninety three percent decrease.
Let’s keep those numbers in mind because we will need them to
calculate an average historical drop
Fast forward back two years all the way to January 2013, when bitcoins price had a major spike and it increased from $15 per bitcoin all the way to two hundred thirteen dollars per bitcoin in early April the same year.
This happiness and hopes for Bitcoin Lambos little last a while, just literally a week later price has plummeted all the way to $60. That’s almost seventy two percent drop. After that drop bitcoin price likely increased and remain stable for the most parts until October 2013 when Bitcoin price slowly reached to $130 per bitcoin.
One month later the Bitcoin price has skyrocketed again to a new all-time
high all the way to one thousand one hundred thirty dollars per bitcoin.
Everyone was shocked, maybe some of those kids even liquidated their position to get those Lambos and Bitcoin unsurprisingly kriste again all the way to $300, that’s another 72% drop .
Times of stability on the bitcoin price.
After that drop the bitcoin price remained stable and fluctuated between two and three hundred dollars per bitcoin.
From January 2015 all the way to January 2016, did not really do anything for entire year. Many people lost hope and interest in Bitcoin and left the market.
In financial market and even in cryptocurrency market, is not your IQ or your intelligence the most important thing, but it is rather your emotional stability and patience that will lead you to success.
If you do not have patience, you should not be in this market.
Since January 2016 Bitcoin price started getting some momentum and it reached all the way to $1,000 in January 2017. During the same year it reached a new all-time high level and I’m pretty sure you remember this: more than 19,000 dollars per coin most of people thought the trend will never end.
And this is the place where you can get free money. That’s funny, no free money for you my friend only major banks are eligible for free money from Federal Reserve, which bailed them out in 2008. What kind of capitalistic system is this?
They help capitalism while banks generate gains and we have socialism while bank lose money.
Bitcoin price decreased from $19,000 all the way to $6,000 that’s a six to eight percent drop. Assuming this is the floor, if it isn’t, then the floor is nearby so now we can calculate an average historical drop that Bitcoin price has experienced since it was released:
93% + 72% + 72% + 68% / 4 = 76 %.
So 76 % is an average historical drop.
Now let’s move up a notch and try to estimate an average historical
Let’s go back to April 2011 when one Bitcoin price was around a dollar. It skyrocketed all the way to $30 thats a 2009 hundred percent increase.
Wow! who wouldn’t want that?
Let’s move on to February 2013 when a single Bitcoin was around $20 and it increased all the way to two hundred thirteen dollars. That’s almost 1,000 percent increase. Not bad at all!
Let’s go to the next rally which happened later the same year in September 2013. A bitcoin price of around a hundred bucks, the price has increased all the way to one thousand one hundred thirty dollars. That’s a 1030 percent increase.
Very appealing creative returns.
Now finally let’s go back to the most recent times. That probably familiar to most of us.
Current bitcoin price action
January 2017, when between increased from one thousand dollars, all the way to nineteen thousand dollars. That’s a one thousand eight hundred percent increase. This may seem such an unbelievable return. To get this kind of return from the stock market you will have to go back 40 years and purchase S&P 500 for $150 per share in early 1980s. Now it cost around 2,800 dollars per share.
So let’s calculate an average historical increase that bitcoins price had experienced since it existence.
2900% + 1000% + 1030% + 1800% / 4 = 1700%.
Suppose Bitcoin will repeat it historical increase again, from the recent bottom. Let’s round it up to six thousand dollars per coin. If Bitcoin price will increase by one thousand seven hundred percent, that would put the bitcoin over $100.000 (one hundred thousand dollars). That would increase bitcoins market cap all the way to 1.7 trillions (one point seven trillion US dollars).
Now the question is, if one point seven trillion dollars is a realistic market cap for Bitcoin?
Well, let’s see.
By now you should know that Bitcoin is an efficient money and a great way to store value. So if you look at another asset to store value such as gold which market
capitalization consists of eight trillion dollars. If Bitcoin reaches to one point seven trillion dollars, that would be around 20% of Gold’s value.
So the question is, if this is possible, hell yeah!
It is possible, it’s not only possible, it is probable, it’s very likely that this is going to happen.
In fact, I would argue that bitcoin preserves a better function of money than gold. Yes Gold has a proven history records and it has been money for more than five thousand years.
However, there are some advantages of using Bitcoin:
- First Bitcoin scarce.
- It has a limited supply, there is only 21 million of them and can never be more. I can tell you exactly what supply of the Bitcoin is going to be tomorrow one year from today or 10 years from today.
- Unlike gold, bitcoin is easily divisible: one Bitcoin can be cut into 100 million pieces, try to cut one kilo of gold in two hundred million pieces.
- Bitcoin is by far the most divisible money we have ever seen.
- Bitcoin is also durable, bitcoin exists because of distributed ledger, surely enough. If internet went down most likely you wouldn’t be able to use bitcoin but it is also true, with any other form of payment system including credit cards, PayPal, banks and any other form of modern money.
- Bitcoin is fungible, each bitcoin is worth the same as any other.
- Every bitcoin wallet test if the bitcoin is legitimate or not.
- Bitcoin cannot be counterfeited. Unlike gold it cannot be filled with copper and colored.
- And most importantly, bitcoin is highly portable. You can send it anywhere in earth it most easy crossing any border, that has no weight no smell no physical body that
- can be stopped.
Bitcoin is the only form of money today that can be moved in these things without trusting a third party. It is the only form of money that does not require permission. Try to move few kilo of gold overseas and see how expensive and stressful ii going to get.
Therefore, bitcoin is the only form of money for people. So going back to the question if bitcoin can take 20% of gold, yes indeed it can, and most likely it will surpass gold over time. In fact, if we take a total global store of value, including gold, collectible arts, real estates and negative interest rate, bonds, then the total market capitalization approximately would be 280 trillion dollars.
A bitcoin will take only 5 percent of global store value. It would put the Bitcoin price market cap to 14 trillion dollars or 1 point would be $800,000.
So this is the end, let me know what you guys think about potential bitcoin price.
Do you think those numbers are realistic?Jesus Guzman
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