Stop trying to forecast Price When I started on my Forex trading journey; I made the assumption that what I was learning to do was forecast price.
In hindsight, I can see that assumption subconsciously dictated much of my early development. Having that view meant I actively looked for systems, strategies, and techniques that appeared to or attempted to work on forecast price.
What I came to learn more recently, is that when we try to forecast price is a kind of “stupid.”
My current thinking is that a Forecast of direction only occurs when the course of the market is weak or unclear.
When the direction of the market is strong, there is no need to forecast direction – it is obvious. When the course of the market is active. The only question to ask is whether the trend is going to continue.
So if forecasting of price is required – or even possible, I am not interested in that market at that time. The result of that view and trading approach is that I only trade strong markets.
A distillation of my approach would be;
– Only trade the most reliable trends,
– Just trade in the direction of those trends,
– Only enter a trade when the current price action confirms that direction, and always use solid trade management.
So I no longer try and forecast price. I merely find a moving market and make sure it is still running. Then try and hope in the market using a precise strategy.
The result of my “precise strategy” – is that most times I miss out on an entry in the market because of the market doesn’t fit my specific requirements, or I miss out on entry because of the market stalls. Sounds like a bummer right?
The critical point is that neither of these scenarios cost me a cent!!!
Unlike the days when a rising market was enough for this money to chuck his hand in the jar and hope. He can pull it out afterward, with disastrous consequences, I now sit and wait for the right conditions before a trade.
And I don‟t hope I can get away with breaking my rules just this time – because I was sure the market was ready to pop. Trading like that is just a crap shoot.